The interest-rate sensitive housing sector was also an early victim of rising rates. The March outbreak of banking problems – banking is the most highly leveraged of financial institutions - likely was an early signal of deeper economic problems to come. The rule of thumb is that 12 to 18 unpredictable months are needed for monetary policy to begin its work, and we just passed the 12-month mark on March 22. The current forecast now sees this slowdown as right on top of us. A return to trend growth of 125,000 jobs per month is assumed in both cases.
The right side of Figure 1 illustrates how the May forecast has essentially postposed the November slowdown by a couple of quarters, allowing it to begin from a higher level and turn into a longer downturn and later recovery. There is still no recession in the outlook, just a long period of very slow growth. In the current May forecast, the first signs of economic trouble comes this summer with weakness that now is expected to persist through most of 2024. These expectations were postponed in February and again in May. For example, in the decade-long expansion leading to 2019Q4, the US economy added 193,000 jobs per month, while the latest May forecast shows only 32,300 jobs per month through four quarters beginning this summer.įollowing the recent return of huge numbers of post-pandemic jobs, the 79,000 jobs per month forecast by SPF in November of last year marked the first SPF projection of significant economic slowing, followed by a sharper pullback in 2023 and recovery in 2024.
The numbers on the left side of Figure 1 are quarterly changes in payroll employment but stated as monthly average changes. None show a recession, but all show a serious slowdown in economic growth that brings the US economy to a near standstill. Figure 1 shows the results of the last three releases of the Survey in November, February, and May. It is now conducted by the Philadelphia Fed and is the oldest continuing US macroeconomic forecast.
#Houston past weather professional
The Survey of Professional Forecasters ( SPF) has been carried out quarterly since 1968. A forecast of coming economic slowdown or recession remains in place, but the date of the slowdown has been postponed several times by sustained consumer strength. Meanwhile, a solid core of consumer income and spending remains firm. The Houston economic outlook remains unchanged with inflation continuing at high rates, the Federal Reserve maintaining tight monetary policy, and both the US and Houston economies showing numerous cracks around the edges. Recession Ahead? Financial Markets Challenge the Fed June 16, 2023
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